When New Year's Day 2024 arrived on the Noto Peninsula of Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, the celebrations were cut violently short by one of the most powerful earthquakes to strike the country in years. At precisely 16:10:09 Japan Standard Time on January 1, 2024, the ground beneath the peninsula ruptured with a magnitude of MJMA 7.6, equivalent to Mw 7.5, with the epicenter located just 6 kilometers north-northeast of the coastal city of Suzu. The shaking reached a maximum JMA seismic intensity of Shindo 7, the highest on the Japanese scale, and a Modified Mercalli intensity of X to XI, described as extreme. The earthquake became officially designated by the Japan Meteorological Agency as the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, or in Japanese, Reiwa 6-nen Noto-hanto Jishin.
The geological setting of the Noto Peninsula has long made it vulnerable to seismic events. Japan sits at the convergent boundaries of the Pacific, Philippine Sea, North American, and Eurasian tectonic plates, one of the most geologically active configurations on Earth. Along the western coast of Honshu, bordering the Sea of Japan, a north-south trending convergent boundary exists between the Eurasian and North American plates, and researchers have proposed that this zone constitutes an incipient subduction zone composed of eastward-dipping thrust faults. The Sea of Japan itself was formed through back-arc rifting related to Pacific plate subduction during the Early Miocene, a process that concluded by the Middle Miocene. By the late Pliocene, tectonic compression replaced the earlier extensional regime, reactivating old rift faults in a reverse sense and inverting the sedimentary basins they had once created. Major earthquakes and tsunamis along this boundary had occurred in 1833, 1940, 1964, 1983, and 1993, demonstrating a persistent seismic history stretching back centuries.
Specifically relevant to the 2024 disaster was a fault system known as F43, one of 60 faults formally evaluated in the region. This southeast-dipping fault, trending west-southwest to east-northeast, consists of two segments with a combined length of 94.2 kilometers and reaches the seabed just north of the Noto Peninsula. Scientific assessments had previously judged it capable of producing an earthquake of Mw 7.6, a figure that proved remarkably accurate. What preceded the January 2024 mainshock was an earthquake swarm that had been building beneath the peninsula's northeastern tip since December 2020, beginning at depths greater than 15 kilometers. By mid-March 2021 the swarm migrated to shallower depths above 15 kilometers, and most subsequent events occurred between 10 and 15 kilometers deep. The largest event in this swarm prior to January 2024 was a MJMA 6.5 earthquake in May 2023. The occurrence of an Mw 7.5 rupture following such a swarm was nevertheless considered rare by seismologists, as areas experiencing intense crustal fracturing are generally regarded as less likely to generate major earthquakes.
The mainshock triggered immediate devastation along the Noto Peninsula. The towns of Suzu, Wajima, Noto, and Anamizu suffered the worst structural damage, with centuries-old wooden buildings and modern reinforced structures alike reduced to rubble. Landslides and liquefaction compounded the destruction, cutting off roads and isolating entire communities from rescue teams. The earthquake also issued Japan's first major tsunami warning since the catastrophic 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and the warning proved justified. A tsunami measuring 11.3 meters in height was recorded at Wajima, sweeping through coastal neighborhoods and destroying fishing infrastructure that had supported the local economy for generations.
Damage extended well beyond Ishikawa Prefecture. Toyama and Niigata prefectures both sustained significant harm, and affected structures were recorded across nine prefectures in total. In all, 204,903 structures were damaged, a number that captured the staggering geographical scope of the destruction.
The human toll climbed steadily in the weeks following the earthquake as search teams reached isolated communities. A total of 732 deaths were confirmed, with two additional persons remaining missing. Of the confirmed fatalities, 718 occurred in Ishikawa Prefecture, 8 in Toyama, and 6 in Niigata. More than 1,400 people were injured. Crucially, the manner in which deaths occurred illustrated the extended nature of the disaster. Of the 732 fatalities, only 228 were directly attributed to the earthquake and tsunami themselves. The remaining 504 were classified as disaster-related deaths, a category encompassing people who died from causes aggravated by the event, including fear and stress induced by ongoing aftershocks, the loss of electricity and water services, and the physical and psychological toll of extended evacuations to temporary shelters. This figure made the 2024 Noto earthquake the deadliest in Japan since the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake.
The relief and recovery operation was complicated by the peninsula's geography. The Noto Peninsula juts into the Sea of Japan and is connected to the rest of Honshu by only a limited road network, much of which was severed by landslides and ground deformation immediately after the mainshock. Self-Defense Force personnel, firefighters, and rescue teams worked through freezing winter conditions to reach survivors trapped in collapsed structures. Water supply systems, many of them aging, failed across the region, leaving hundreds of thousands without running water for weeks. Power outages affected large portions of the peninsula throughout January.
The earthquake's aftermath prompted serious reflection on the challenges of disaster response in peninsular and rural Japan, where aging infrastructure and declining populations had already strained public services before the event. The contrast between the swift, large-scale response seen after the 2011 Tohoku disaster, which struck a more accessible region, and the slower pace of aid delivery to the Noto Peninsula in 2024 drew considerable public attention and criticism. Authorities acknowledged that the road network needed significant reconstruction and that emergency logistics planning for geographically isolated regions required revision.
Beyond the immediate humanitarian concerns, the 2024 Noto earthquake represented a significant scientific event. It was the strongest earthquake to strike the Noto Peninsula since records began in 1885, and it confirmed the destructive potential of the fault systems along the western coast of Honshu. The 11.3-meter tsunami at Wajima, though not approaching the scale of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, served as a reminder that the Sea of Japan coastline, sometimes regarded as less tsunami-prone than the Pacific coast, is far from immune to such hazards.
Reconstruction of the affected towns proceeded slowly, shaped by debates about whether to rebuild in place or relocate communities away from tsunami-exposed coastlines. Wajima, known for its lacquerware craftsmanship, faced the prospect of rebuilding not only its physical fabric but also the artisan traditions that gave the city its cultural identity. For the broader Noto Peninsula, the earthquake of January 1, 2024 marked the beginning of a long and uncertain recovery process, a sobering start to the new year that would reshape the region for decades to come.
