On This Day

Crisis in Venezuela

Socioeconomic and political conjuncture in 21st century Venezuela

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An ongoing socioeconomic and political crisis began in Venezuela during the presidencies of Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro and Delcy Rodríguez. It has been marked by hyperinflation, starvation, disease, crime, and mortality rates, resulting in massive emigration. Food shortages and hyperinflation have ended, but inflation remains high. It is the worst economic crisis in Venezuela's history and considered by some sources as more severe than the Great Depression in the United States, the 1985–1994 Brazilian economic crisis, or the 2008–2009 hyperinflation in Zimbabwe. In 2019, the Institute of International Finance called it the single largest economic collapse outside of war in 45 years. Writers have compared aspects, such as unemployment and GDP contraction, to Bosnia and Herzegovina after the 1992–95 Bosnian War, and those in Russia, Cuba and Albania following the Revolutions of 1989.

In 2010, Chávez declared an "economic war" due to increasing shortages in Venezuela. The crisis intensified under the Maduro government, growing more severe as a result of low oil prices, and a drop in oil production from lack of maintenance and investment. In 2016, the opposition-led National Assembly declared a "health humanitarian crisis." The government failed to cut spending in the face of falling oil revenues, denying the existence of a crisis, and violently repressed opposition. Extrajudicial killings by the government became common, with the UN reporting 5,287 killings by the Special Action Forces in 2017, with another 1,569 killings in the first half of 2019, stating some were "a reprisal for participation in anti-government demonstrations."

The European Union, the Lima Group, the US and other countries have applied sanctions against officials and members of the military and security forces, as a response to human rights abuses, degradation of the rule of law, and corruption. In 2017, the US extended its sanctions. These blocked oil exports, paralyzed the Venezuelan economy, froze Venezuelan financial assets and blocked the country's access to international payments systems. According to a 2019 report by Mark Weisbrot and Jeffrey Sachs, sanctions caused Venezuela a loss of $38 billion between 2016-19, prevented the government from resolving the crisis using fiscal and monetary policy changes, and in combination with preexisting negative trends resulted in an estimated 40,000 excess deaths between 2017-18. The report's methodology and conclusions were criticized by other economists.

Supporters of Chávez and Maduro said the problems result from an "economic war" on Venezuela falling oil prices, international sanctions, and the business elite. Most observers cite anti-democratic governance, political corruption, authoritarianism, human rights violations, high dependence on oil, and gross mismanagement of the economy as causes. Others attribute the crisis to the "socialist", "populist", or "hyper-populist" nature of the government's policies, and the use of these to maintain political power.

The crisis has affected the life of the average Venezuelan at all levels. By 2017, hunger had escalated to the point where almost 75% of the population had lost an average of 9 kg (over 19 lbs), and more than half did not have enough income to meet basic food needs. 20% of Venezuelans (5.4 million) had left the country by 2021, and 7.7 million had emigrated by 2024. In 2019, 25% of Venezuelans needed some form of humanitarian assistance. 95% of the population by 2021 was living in poverty, and 77% lived under extreme poverty, the highest ever recorded in the country. Following increased sanctions throughout 2019, the Maduro government abandoned policies established by Chávez such as price and currency controls, which resulted in the country seeing a temporary rebound from economic decline before COVID. By 2019, as a response to the devaluation of the official bolívar currency, the population increasingly relied on US dollars for transactions. In 2022, after the implementation of mild economic liberalization, poverty decreased slightly and the economy grew for the first time in 8 years. The reforms intensified inequality, with Venezuela reaching the highest level of inequality in the Americas.

The United States Intervention in Venezuela on 3 January 2026 resulted in the capture of Maduro and the assumption of the Venezeulan presidency by Delcy Rodríguez. According to The New York Times, Venezuela has been a de facto puppet state since the intervention, with the US State Department under Marco Rubio exercising control over core aspects of Venezuela's governance, including its domestic finances, government appointments, revenues, foreign policy, and the distribution of its natural resources. Venezuela's quarterly GDP growth rate of 2.5% in the immediate aftermath of the attack was its lowest in five years.

After attempting a coup d'état in 1992 and being pardoned by President Rafael Caldera, Hugo Chávez was elected president and maintained the presidency from 1999 until his death in 2013. After increasing oil prices in the early 2000s provided additional funds to Venezuela, Chávez established Bolivarian missions, aimed at providing public services to improve economic, cultural, and social conditions. The Missions entailed the construction of thousands of free medical clinics for the poor, and the enactment of food and housing subsidies. A 2010 OAS report indicated achievements in addressing illiteracy, healthcare and poverty, and economic and social advances. Quality of life for Venezuelans had also improved. While poverty declined more than 20 percent between 2002 and 2008, "aid was disbursed to some of the poor...in a way that ended up helping the president and his allies and cronies more than anyone else", according to Corrales and Penfold. Teresa A. Meade wrote that Chávez's popularity strongly depended "on the lower classes who have benefited from these health initiatives and similar policies."

The social works initiated by Chávez's government relied on oil exports. The nation's richness in natural resources hindered its industrial development and diversification. By the early 2010s, economic actions taken by Chávez's government during the preceding decade, such as overspending and price controls, became unsustainable. Venezuela's economy faltered while poverty, inflation and shortages increased. On 2 June 2010, Chávez declared an "economic war" due to increasing shortages in Venezuela.

Following Chávez's death in 2013, Nicolás Maduro became president after defeating his opponent Henrique Capriles by 235,000 votes, a 1.5% margin. Maduro continued most of the existing economic policies of Chávez. Upon entering the presidency, his administration faced a high inflation rate and large shortages of goods, problems left over from Chávez's policies.

Maduro said capitalist speculation had driven high rates of inflation and created widespread shortages of basic necessities. In September 2013, the government seized a toilet paper factory, saying that its owners had been hoarding goods in hopes of selling them later at a higher price. In November, the government seized an electronics store over allegations of price gouging, and imposed price controls on another. The imposition of price controls on certain industries led to a surge in demand for those goods. Though the price controls made goods more affordable for those who could obtain them, they could not meet overall demand. Maduro announced a three phase plan to alleviate the country's economic troubles. The goals of his "economic offensive" were to activate domestic production, break with "oil rentism", guarantee supply and fix prices at affordable levels. In 2014, The National Assembly granted him greater powers to impose price controls and seize businesses he accused of price gouging scarce goods.

By 2014, Venezuela had entered an economic recession. The economy contracted by 4.8%, 4.9% and 2.3% in the first three quarters of the year. 12-month inflation reached 63.6%. Oil exports fell by 14.2%. Despite poor GDP growth, some social indicators continued to improve. Extreme poverty was reduced to 5.4% and unemployment fell to 5.9%. The crisis intensified as a result of oil oversupply in early 2015, and a drop in Venezuela's oil production from lack of maintenance and investment. Between 2014 and 2016, real GDP declined by an estimated 24.3%. By 2016, the country had an inflation rate of 800%, the highest in its history.

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