The landlocked nation of Mali occupies a vast stretch of the western Sahara and Sahel, a geography that has shaped its history as profoundly as any political force. Home to the ancient trading empires of Ghana, Mali, and Songhai, the region became a contested frontier once more when a rebellion erupted in the north on January 16, 2012, setting in motion a conflict that would draw in multiple armed factions, regional neighbors, and European and international military forces over the course of more than a decade.
The initial rebellion was led by the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad, known by its French acronym MNLA, a group of secular-oriented Tuareg fighters seeking independence or at least greater autonomy for the northern region they called Azawad. The MNLA had a formidable early alliance with the jihadist group Ansar Dine, which was itself connected to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and its splinter organization the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa. The ranks of the insurgency swelled with fighters returning from Libya following the collapse of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in 2011, many of them experienced and well-armed.
The Malian government's response was chaotic. On March 22, 2012, President Amadou Toumani Touré was overthrown in a military coup, less than a month before presidential elections were scheduled. The soldiers who seized power called themselves the National Committee for the Restoration of Democracy and State and suspended the constitution. The political turmoil in Bamako devastated what remained of government resistance in the north. Without effective orders or support from the capital, Malian forces abandoned their positions, and the rebels captured the three provincial capitals of Timbuktu, Kidal, and Gao in just three days. On April 6, 2012, the MNLA declared the independence of Azawad, a declaration that was promptly rejected as invalid by both the African Union and the European Union.
The declared independence of Azawad was short-lived not because the international community refused to recognize it but because the MNLA's jihadist allies turned on them. The secular nationalist and Islamist factions proved unable to reconcile their fundamentally different visions for the territory they had jointly seized. Open conflict broke out between the MNLA and groups including Ansar Dine, AQIM, and MOJWA, resulting in a decisive defeat for the Tuareg nationalists. By mid-2012 the jihadists controlled nearly all of Azawad, imposing strict religious codes on the population and systematically destroying ancient Sufi shrines and manuscripts in Timbuktu that they deemed idolatrous.
With jihadist forces advancing toward the southern half of the country, the Malian government appealed for foreign intervention. France responded on January 11, 2013, launching Operation Serval, a rapid military campaign that drove the jihadists back from their front-line positions and prevented the fall of Bamako. French forces, supported by Malian, African Union, and international troops, gradually recaptured territory across the north. By the time presidential elections were held in 2013, government and allied forces had reclaimed most of the territory previously held by jihadists and Tuareg nationalists. A peace deal between the government and Tuareg rebels was signed on June 18, 2013, but the agreement quickly frayed; the rebels pulled out by September 26, 2013, claiming the government had not honored its commitments.
The conflict evolved rather than resolved. In mid-2014, France wound down Operation Serval and transitioned its military presence to the broader regional Operation Barkhane, a counterterrorism effort spanning the entire Sahel. In June 2015, negotiations between the Malian government, a pro-government coalition called the Platform, and the rebel Coordination of Azawad Movements produced the Algiers Accords, which envisioned decentralization of the Malian state, integration of former rebels into the national army, and economic development in the north. Implementation of the accords remained elusive.
A significant organizational realignment occurred in 2017 when Ansar Dine, the Sahara branch of AQIM, the Katiba Macina, and the remaining elements of Al-Mourabitoun merged into a new coalition called Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin, pledging allegiance to al-Qaeda. Simultaneously, a Sahel affiliate of the Islamic State established itself in the region. In what researchers called the Sahel exception, these two globally hostile organizations coexisted for several years while fighting against the Malian government and its allies. By the first half of 2018, attacks had intensified significantly, and by July of that year northern Mali had largely slipped from government control again. Jihadist activity was no longer confined to the north; it had expanded rapidly into central Mali, threatening populations that had previously been largely unaffected. By 2020, some estimates suggested the Malian government controlled only about one-third of the country's territory.
Political instability compounded the security crisis. Mass protests in 2020 eventually gave way to a military coup led by Special Forces Colonel Assimi Goïta, who deposed the civilian government. The coup complicated relations with France and international partners who had been providing security assistance. The subsequent military government turned to Russia's Wagner Group for military support and expelled French forces, fundamentally reshaping the external assistance architecture that had sustained the counterterrorism effort. The conflict, which began as a Tuareg rebellion in 2012, had by the mid-2020s transformed into one of the most complex and deadly ongoing conflicts in Africa, with no resolution in sight.
