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Ceasefire

Temporary agreement to stop a war

5 min01/01/2024
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War is among the oldest of human activities, but so too is the desire to stop it — at least temporarily. The ceasefire, known in some contexts as a truce, represents one of humanity's most practical tools for pausing violence: an agreement between opposing parties to suspend hostilities, creating space for negotiation, humanitarian relief, or simply the exhausted recognition that the costs of continued fighting have become unsustainable.

A ceasefire is defined by several characteristics that distinguish it from related but distinct instruments of conflict resolution. Unlike a declaration of a cessation of hostilities, which may be unilateral and informal, a ceasefire is generally understood to be binding on both parties. Unlike an armistice, which formally ends a war, a ceasefire is temporary in nature, though it may be intended to last either for a defined period or indefinitely. According to the United Nations, a ceasefire declaration typically applies to the entire geographical area of a conflict, distinguishing it from a humanitarian pause, which may apply only to specific corridors or times for the delivery of aid.

Ceasefires may be reached through various means. Parties may negotiate directly, reach an informal understanding through back channels, or accept an agreement brokered by a neutral third party — a mediator, a regional organization, or the United Nations Security Council itself. The UN Security Council has authority under Chapter VII of the UN Charter to impose ceasefires through binding resolutions, and has done so in numerous conflicts over the decades. By one estimate, at least 2,202 ceasefires were declared across 66 countries in 109 civil conflicts between 1989 and 2020, illustrating how routine the instrument has become in the management of modern conflict.

The purposes that ceasefires serve are more varied than their simple definition suggests. At the most basic level, the immediate goal is to stop violence. But the underlying motivations of the parties involved may diverge sharply from this humanitarian aim. A ceasefire may be sought to create conditions for genuine peace negotiations, to provide access for humanitarian organizations delivering food, medicine, or shelter to civilian populations, or simply to reduce the daily toll of a conflict that neither side can win outright. Less benignly, a ceasefire may also provide an actor with a strategic opportunity to rearm, reposition forces, or consolidate territorial gains behind the cover of a nominal peace, creating what scholars describe as bargaining problems that reduce the likelihood of durable agreements.

Researchers have identified several factors that make ceasefire agreements more likely to hold over time. Agreements that include demilitarized zones, which create physical separation between opposing forces, are generally more durable. The withdrawal of troops from contested areas reduces the risk of accidental contact that could reignite fighting. Third-party guarantees — in the form of monitoring missions, peacekeeping forces, or international verification mechanisms — increase the cost to any party of violating the agreement, making cheating less attractive.

Scholars working in this field emphasize that durable war termination is more likely when the parties have more complete information about each other's capabilities and intentions, reducing the uncertainty that can make continued fighting seem rational. Credible commitments matter enormously: a ceasefire agreement is more likely to hold when both sides believe the other side will honor it, and when the mechanisms to enforce compliance are robust enough to make defection costly. The domestic political context of each party also plays a role — leaders who can afford to make peace without paying an unacceptable political price at home are more likely to maintain ceasefire agreements.

Researchers Govinda Clayton and Valerie Sticher developed a classification of civil-war ceasefire agreements that captures this spectrum of durability. They identified three successively more ambitious types: a cessation of hostilities agreement, which can be implemented quickly even when trust between parties is very low and detailed peace negotiations remain unrealistic; a preliminary ceasefire, in which motivations to stop fighting are stronger and negotiations are underway, though trust remains limited; and a definitive ceasefire, which forms part of a comprehensive peace agreement typically including disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of former combatants. The data Clayton and Sticher gathered for civil wars between 1990 and 2019 showed that the periods of peace following each type of ceasefire were successively longer: within three months of initiation, about 30 percent of cessations of hostility had broken down, compared to 50 percent of preliminary ceasefires and 70 percent of definitive ceasefires remaining intact.

The durability of a ceasefire also depends on factors beyond the immediate military and political situation. Socioeconomic grievances that fueled the original conflict, if left unaddressed, provide a ready reservoir of motivation for renewed violence. Spoilers — armed factions or political actors who benefit from continued conflict and resist peace — can undermine agreements even when the main parties are committed. And in conflicts involving non-state actors, the question of who has the authority to commit to and enforce compliance with a ceasefire is often deeply contested.

The ceasefire remains an imperfect but indispensable tool of conflict management. Its value lies not in any guarantee of lasting peace, but in its capacity to create pauses in violence during which the harder work of reconciliation may, with sufficient political will and institutional support, eventually become possible.

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